Stubborn certainty serves no one well

Visionary decision-making happens at the intersection of intuition and logic.

~ Paul O’Brien

Occasionally, I question my intuition and struggle with decision-making.

“Strong convictions, weakly held” is a mantra I now repeat to myself when indecisive.

It is a decision-making philosophy that advocates taking a clear, decisive position based on current information, while maintaining the humility to update or abandon it when new data proves it incorrect.

The phrase is widely attributed to Paul Saffo, a technology forecaster and Stanford professor who promotes a mindset that balances confidence with adaptability.

It sounds paradoxical, but it can be effectively used in business and tech to prevent paralysis by analysis, encouraging teams to move forward with a hypothesis while actively seeking feedback that might disprove it.

Apparently, Jeff Bezos uses this approach to describe decision-making at Amazon.

In practice, it looks like this:

• Leaders take positions based on the best information they have.

• They’re willing to defend those positions.

• But they actively look for reasons that they might be wrong—and update quickly as required.

It’s a useful approach in fast-changing environments, debates, and learning, because it balances confidence with adaptability.

Closing thought

Every decision you make reflects your evaluation of who you are.

~ Marianne Williamson

Lacking the confidence to commit to something serves no one well.

Neither does stubborn certainty: tying our identity to being right.

If better information appears, it is wise to pivot without defensiveness.

Beliefs are creative. Treat them as tools, not possessions.